If you thought Halloween was a fright night, I beg you to consider next Tuesday’s election.
First, it’s expected that turnout in 2022 will be at record levels, at least for a midterm election, keeping with recent trends. Various polls have indicated that voting intent is quite high. For example, an NBC poll last week found a majority of voters thought this election “was more important” than past midterms. And the reason why? Over 80% of Democrats and Republicans think their opposition, if not stopped “will destroy America as we know it.” The bipartisan polling team that conducted it concluded: “We know that many voters will be casting ballots with anger on their minds… we just don’t know which side will be angrier.”
A major reason for this is “negative partisanship” as more Americans now identify with a major party because they hate or want to stop the other one, not because they are “for” theirs. Fewer ads run in newspapers or regular network TV and more are through targeted cable channels and social media — thus, are less likely to reach independents. (It would help, too, if people would be more open to differing views and not consume information that fits their worldview and is open to manipulation.)
And the politicians are playing that tune, in ads and messages. In our local House debate on Friday, I must’ve counted Republican Matt Larkin using some variant of “scary” or “afraid” eight times or more, while Democrat Kim Schrier countered with calling him “extreme.” Why? As Hitler’s propagandist Joseph Goebbels would’ve told you, sadly it’s easier to motivate people with fear and hate than caring and love.
As a result, however, it means that more people suffer from pre- and post-election anxiety, and anger and divisions with our neighbors grow bigger. We political scientists used to bemoan the relatively low turnout of American elections as unrepresentative or reflecting apathy, but now that we have it, we may miss the days of old.
Second, another threat is that a decent number of election deniers, if not actual Capitol rioters, are on the ballot in various races in a number of important states, including positions that influence election administration. They could win. (To those who may sympathize with them, I merely ask you to think: why would the Democrats rig the election for Biden, and not do so for Congress and state legislatures where they lost seats?)
Finally, the mobilization of diehards at expense of the moderate middle, in many “purple” areas (like our congressional district) means that many of these races may not be called on Nov. 8, and may change over the course of the week like we saw in 2020. Indeed, Republican pollster Frank Luntz (who once helped Newt Gingrich to claim he was popular) even went so far as to worry that potential delays, close outcomes, and polarization, coupled with election deniers who may claim fraud if they lose, could lead to violence and even market collapse.
So, what can we do?
To echo a reform refrain my colleague Dr. Stahelski has called for, maybe we should institute mandatory voting, as is done in Australia and elsewhere (i.e., don’t vote, get fined). Ironically, it could restore faith in the process. There could be no “stuffing of ballot boxes” — not that there is, but specter looms — because we’d know the exact number of the voting-age population in given areas and any deviation would be flagged. Other fraud would be more difficult because everyone would be registered and have official government documentation. Plus, candidates, parties, and groups wouldn’t have to spend lots of money exaggerating and scaring people to vote, and could focus on a wider range of issues.
Two of the main traditional rebuttals against it are first, more ignorants if not idiots will vote, thus weakening the quality of representation and officials; and, in related fashion, that to appeal to this electorate, campaign ads will either be dumbed down or more negative than they are. All I’d say to that is: can it get much worse? Plus, maybe people will educate themselves if they have to do it, like students studying for an exam.
Anyway, here’s hoping we don’t have many nightmares next week.
Todd Schaefer is a Central Washington University political science professor. Left and Right is a column provided by CWU professors to represent a variety of political viewpoints.
