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SEATTLE, March 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- After a nearly two-year slowdown, year-over-year home value growth rose from the month prior in February. The typical home value in the U.S. is now $247,084, a 3.9% increase from a year ago, according to the February Zillow® Real Estate Market Reporti

U.S. home values have not fallen on an annual basis since summer 2012, and have only done so in a few of the most expensive markets in recent years. But the rate of annual appreciation nationally had slowed in each month between May 2018, when they grew 6.7% year-over-year, and January 2020, when they grew 3.8%. 

This turn in home values comes as for-sale inventory again fell to a new low in Zillow data that dates back to 2013. Inventory is down 8.4% in the U.S. and 29.4% in Phoenix, which had the biggest annual gain in home values among the 35 largest U.S. metros. This continued tightening of homes on the market, along with incredibly low mortgage rates that make monthly payments more affordable, continues to be a key factor putting pressure on prices as buyers compete for the limited homes that are available. 

The economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic were only beginning to be revealed as February ended, so it is possible this reacceleration will be a blip, not a trend, and reverse itself in the coming months. The U.S. economy has entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 25% since the beginning of the year. Zillow research on past pandemics has shown that home sales activity slowed during the outbreak, sometimes significantly, but prices remained stable and the market recovered quickly once the outbreak subsided. 

If the U.S. were to fall into an economic recession, that would dampen the outlook for housing somewhat as that often means a recovery will be slower and more prolonged. But it's unlikely a recession now would have the same impact on the housing market as the Great Recession did in the mid-2000s. Previous research by Zillow about other economic downturns over the past 23 years shows that, historically, home values tend to rise faster than inflation during a recession. 

"Zillow's February numbers show the strong position the housing market was in just ahead of the novel coronavirus's spread in the United States, and the subsequent stock market downturn," said Jeff Tucker, economist at Zillow. "In February we saw inventory stuck near record lows, which was finally enough to reignite home price appreciation after a cooler 2019. Homebuyers were flocking to the market this winter with their finances buttressed by the longest economic expansion in memory, and with their purchasing power magnified by rock-bottom mortgage interest rates. Now, though, as so much is uncertain, we are entering uncharted territory for the housing market."

Home value growth accelerated from January to February in 23 of the 35 largest U.S. metros. The acceleration was greatest in expensive West Coast markets, led by San Jose, which saw positive annual home value growth for the first time since January 2019. Home values grew the most year-over-year in Phoenix (+7%), Columbus (+6.3%) and Charlotte (+5.8%). 

Mortgage rates listed by third-party lenders on Zillow rose to a peak of 3.91% on February 28 after starting the month at 3.75%. Rates reached their monthly low on February 27 at 3.7%. Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgages site by third-party lenders and reflect recent changes in the market.

Metropolitan
Area

Zillow Home
Value Index,
February
2020

ZHVI Year-
over-Year
Change,
February
2020

ZHVI YOY
Percentage
Change From
Last Month

Inventory Year-
over-Year Change
(Percentage),
February 2020

Inventory
Year-over-
Year Change
(Number),
February 2020

United States

$247,084

3.9%

0.1%

-8.4%

-135,705

New York, NY

$483,379

0.9%

0.1%

-3.9%

-3,480

Los Angeles-
Long Beach-
Anaheim, CA

$687,810

4.1%

1.7%

-20.1%

-5,899

Chicago, IL

$240,595

1.0%

0.0%

1.3%

590

Dallas-Fort
Worth, TX

$254,821

2.2%

-0.1%

-6.1%

-2,079

Philadelphia,
PA

$250,156

3.2%

0.1%

-13.2%

-3,677

Houston, TX

$218,783

2.2%

-0.3%

-4.3%

-1,595

Washington,
DC

$437,409

3.0%

-0.2%

-8.9%

-1,860

Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL

$303,426

2.5%

0.7%

-10.4%

-6,163

Atlanta, GA

$241,153

5.0%

0.2%

-5.2%

-1,899

Boston, MA

$491,740

2.1%

0.2%

-11.2%

-1,662

San Francisco,
CA

$1,118,362

2.7%

1.7%

-14.6%

-1,158

Detroit, MI

$180,039

3.8%

0.1%

5.4%

1,050

Riverside, CA

$386,644

3.4%

0.3%

-18.4%

-3,873

Phoenix, AZ

$290,720

7.0%

0.3%

-29.4%

-7,625

Seattle, WA

$535,121

4.3%

1.3%

-26.7%

-3,181

Minneapolis-St
Paul, MN

$294,680

4.0%

0.1%

-1.5%

-193

San Diego, CA

$619,887

5.0%

1.3%

-24.7%

-2,424

St. Louis, MO

$179,884

2.9%

-0.3%

-7.5%

-961

Tampa, FL

$231,247

4.3%

0.4%

-16.5%

-3,451

Baltimore, MD

$291,929

1.1%

0.0%

-9.7%

-1,249

Denver, CO

$441,557

2.5%

0.3%

-17.4%

-1,867

Pittsburgh, PA

$159,187

4.2%

-0.4%

-11.8%

-1,209

Portland, OR

$420,531

2.0%

0.2%

-16.2%

-1,577

Charlotte, NC

$238,651

5.8%

0.2%

-14.4%

-1,690

Sacramento, CA

$435,941

5.1%

1.0%

-15.3%

-1,091

San Antonio, TX

$205,179

3.2%

-0.7%

5.9%

702

Orlando, FL

$256,896

3.6%

-0.1%

-14.8%

-2,077

Cincinnati, OH

$185,754

4.4%

-0.5%

-15.5%

-1,177

Cleveland, OH

$159,405

4.7%

0.3%

-10.2%

-1,067

Kansas City,
MO

$205,552

3.6%

0.0%

-12.4%

-1,061

Las Vegas, NV

$293,030

1.1%

-0.1%

-21.4%

-2,889

Columbus, OH

$212,422

6.3%

0.1%

-7.2%

-429

Indianapolis, IN

$181,438

5.0%

0.2%

N/A

N/A  

San Jose, CA

$1,224,923

0.4%

3.4%

-19.7%

-604

Austin, TX

$339,033

3.5%

-0.5%

-13.7%

-1,296

About Zillow
Zillow, the top real estate website in the U.S., is building an on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling, buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease.

In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase.

Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start their home search, and now they can rely on Zillow to help them finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they've come to expect from real estate's most trusted brand.

Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG) and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow and Zillow Offers are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.




i The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/research/data.

 

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